The Consequences of the Panthers Trading Up to the First Pick in the NFL Draft

Which team will make the opening pick in April is now known. Yet we only really know that.

Every year, the NFL draft begins with the #1 overall pick; this year, the trading of that pick signaled the beginning of draft season. The day finally arrived on Friday when the Chicago Bears dealt the first choice to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for a large haul.

In the Top 10, the cards have been rearranged, and Danny Kelly's most recent mock draft on the Ringer NFL draft guide reflects the revised standings. One mock draft, however, cannot account for all of the effects of the top overall pick being traded. We'll start with the stone that was dropped in the pond—the Panthers trading up—and examine all the reverberations that followed.

The Panthers have a very good reason for getting the #1 pick: they are in dire need of a reliable franchise quarterback. Owner David Tepper has never experienced it. Tepper has watched his Panthers begin games with a severely injured Cam Newton, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Newton once more, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, Newton once more, Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold since purchasing the team in 2018. Even some pictures of Garrett Grayson and Jacob Eason were hidden there. What terrifying information. That will leave a man with scars.

The owner is traumatized, and the head coach is traumatized as well. Frank Reich, a surprisingly capable head coach, was only made available to the Colts because they needed to get off the quarterback carousel. Over the course of five seasons in Indianapolis, Reich coached five different starting quarterbacks. Like Tepper, Reich is obviously eager to get his hands on a young quarterback whose price can be kept under control and who he can develop into the cornerstone of the team.

The why is easy. It's not as easy to answer who. Top quarterback prospects include Bryce Young of Alabama, Will Levis of Kentucky, and Anthony Richardson of Florida. C.J. Stroud of Ohio State has been the team's leader in the hours since the Panthers acquired the first pick.

Stroud was a modest favorite when betting markets on the first overall pick at sportsbooks began after the deal; shortly after, he turned into a big favorite. As an illustration: Stroud has an inferred likelihood of being selected first overall with odds of minus-320 of over 75%.

We shouldn't assume that Stroud is already the top pick just now because betting markets frequently make mistakes. The first overall pick odds last year changed from the favorite, Alabama Tackle Evan Neal, to edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson in the middle of March. Neither was chosen first overall in the end. During the week of the NFL Draft in 2018, Josh Allen came in a clear second to Darnold as the favorite. Third-place finisher Mayfield finished first overall.

Stroud, however, makes perfect sense for the Panthers. He is the second-best quarterback among the top four, according to Kelly's Draft Guide, trailing only Young (third overall) among quarterbacks. And unlike Young, who is among the tiniest quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL, Stroud's rating does not contain any obvious red flags. In actuality, Reich sees him as a prototype.

We have seven weeks of deceit ahead of us, from the ambiguity surrounding the Panthers' quarterback rankings to the ambiguity surrounding, well, everyone else's quarterback rankings.

Folks, welcome to draft season.